Financials

Confirmed Model Structure

The model structure for Revenue(t), Cost(t), sensitivity bands, and tier-based CAC logic is adopted across the suite and is in active use for planning.

Assumptions Pending Validation

ARPU by tier, retention-curve inputs, and final quarterly burn values remain open until the live spreadsheet model is fully populated.

Revenue model

Per market, per Pillar I:

Revenue(t) = Addressable_Population × Penetration(t) × Blended_ARPU
Cost(t)    = CAC × New_Users(t) + Localisation_Fixed_Cost + Compliance_Fixed_Cost

Blended ARPU is deliberately not a single number — it separates three mechanisms that scale differently by market, per Pillar I:

Revenue line	Scales with	Notes
Advertising / sponsored content	Engagement, regional ad-rate benchmarks	Historically variable 3–5x across mature vs. emerging ad markets
Subscription / premium tier	Disposable income, willingness-to-pay norms	Expected to differ materially UK/US vs. Nordic vs. Gulf
Fundraising take-rate	Local charitable-giving culture, average fundraiser size	The differentiated line — directly tied to the GoFundMe integration; see Pillar V: Philanthropy & Impact

Cost model & CAC

CAC is modelled with an explicit Tier 1 vs. Tier 2/3 multiplier: typically 3–5x higher outside beachhead markets in year one, converging toward Tier 1 levels only after 18–24 months of brand-awareness compounding (per Pillar I). A single global CAC assumption is flagged there as the single most common error in early-stage international-expansion modelling — this plan does not make that error, and any future version of this document should preserve that discipline.

One further wrinkle worth modelling explicitly once real data exists: Shimmy's invite-only launch (see Compounding Growth & User Psychology, Loop 4) should suppress paid CAC materially during the invite-gated period, since growth is deliberately routed through invitation-based, near-zero-marginal-cost distribution rather than paid acquisition. The burn model below should treat early-period CAC as a distinct, lower-cost regime from the post-expansion CAC figures above, not blend them into one curve.

Burn & runway

Quarter	Headcount cost	Infra & tooling	Other opex	Monthly burn	Cumulative	Runway remaining
Q3 2026	—	—	—	—	—	—
Q4 2026	—	—	—	—	—	—
Q1 2027	—	—	—	—	—	—
Q2 2027	—	—	—	—	—	—

This table should be driven directly from the £1,000,000 raise and the use-of-funds allocation — the runway figure here is what determines whether the milestone dates in Roadmap & Milestones are actually achievable before the next raise is needed.

Unit economics

Metric	Definition	Current value
CAC (Tier 1)	Cost to acquire one user in beachhead markets	To be confirmed
CAC (Tier 2/3)	Cost to acquire one user outside beachhead markets (3–5x Tier 1 in year one)	To be confirmed
LTV	Present value of blended ARPU over expected retention	To be confirmed
LTV:CAC ratio	Standard health check	To be confirmed
Payback period	Months to recover CAC from cumulative ARPU	To be confirmed
Donation completion uplift	Increase in fundraiser completion rate vs. baseline platforms	To be confirmed

Sensitivity — bands, not point estimates

Consistent with Pillar I: every market projection in this plan should ship as low / base / high bands, driven primarily by penetration-curve steepness and CAC-convergence speed — the two inputs with the widest genuine uncertainty. Pillar I is explicit that a single-point five-year revenue forecast for a market Shimmy hasn't entered yet is not a credible artefact for board or investor purposes. This document inherits that standard; any figures added here should arrive with bands and stated assumptions, not as bare numbers.